Chelsea and Wolverhampton Wanderers meet at Stamford Bridge on the final day of the Premier League season with their European fate in their own hands.
The Blues are in possession of the final Champions League qualifying spot and Wolves are in sixth, which would be enough to seal another season of Europa League football.
The Blues could actually lose on Sunday and still finish in the top four, meanwhile, with the two sides either side of them facing off at the King Power Stadium at the same time.
Manchester United are above Chelsea on goal difference alone, while Leicester City are a point worse off but have a far superior goal difference.
Should Chelsea draw against Wolves then they will be hoping for a Man Utd victory in the East Midlands to stop Leicester from overtaking them in fourth place.
Chelsea have won in each of their last five Premier League (PL) home games, averaging 2.40 goals per match. Naturally, Chelsea will be aiming to start quickly, and notably, three (60%) of those five victories saw Chelsea open the scoring inside the first 30 minutes.
Each victory in the above run also saw them win the first half ‘to-nil’ (by an average margin of 1.40 goals). However, a superstitious facet of H2H history implies that Chelsea will be lucky to do this, with none of the last four PL H2Hs seeing the home side on the day score before HT.
Victory for Wolves would guarantee them a sixth-place finish, their best in the top flight since 1979-80.
Wolves have 59 points and will finish the season with their highest tally in the top division since that 1979-80 campaign, when they earned 66 points once adjusted to three for a win.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have gained an unrivalled 21 points from a losing position this season, and also surrendered the fewest points (4) when ahead.
Wolves have a strong PL away record against last season’s top six finishers so far this term (W2, D2, L1). Both victories in that group saw Wolves win the second half 2-0, though they were level or worse at half-time in each game (HT: D2, L3).
Betwizad predicts a win or draw outcome for Chelsea (1X).
Wolves may be a strong side and would want to finish 6th because 7th position may not be enough to take them back to Europe if Arsenal win the FA cup next month.