Heading into the 2025/26 Premier League season, many thought that it would be a two-horse race. Reigning champions Liverpool were the narrow favorites, a tag claimed by their dominant title triumph last season, coupled with the blockbuster summer spending spree, which saw both Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz head to Anfield. Arsenal were positioned just behind them, with three straight runner-up finishes indicating that Mikel Arteta’s time in the sun was surely just around the corner.
In the opening weeks of the campaign, it seemed as though the Reds’ top billing was entirely on the money. Arne Slot’s reigning champs stormed out of the blocks, winning five straight and looking poised to resoundingly defend their title. However, a calamitous run throughout the autumn now has Liverpool 14 points off the pace and listed as mighty 100/1 outsiders. But their loss has been Arsenal’s gain.
Arsenal Storm Clear
While the Reds have capitulated, the Gunners have quietly gone about their business, piling up the wins and assuming top spot in the Premier League table. Their recent 3-2 victory at Bournemouth has seen them amass a six-point lead with 18 games remaining. But as Arsenal fans will tell you, their side has been in this position numerous times before, repeatedly coming up empty-handed.
So, will that happen again? Punters who backed the Gunners in preseason may well not wish to take the risk. Bettors eyeing a win from their six-point lead can take full advantage of their current odds of 1.25 by maximizing value and lengthy odds elsewhere, backing challengers like Manchester City at 3.00 and Aston Villa at 29.00. And the best bit? There are tools out there that help with the process.
The popular hedge calculator at Thunderpick streamlines the “lay the favorite” strategy by inputting your lay liability, opponent odds/stakes, and desired winnings. The tool allows one to instantly balance stakes across outcomes for a better chance of securing decent returns. And considering Arsenal’s recent history in Premier League title races, covering numerous bases certainly seems like the smart play.
While the Gunners are currently six points clear, there is still a long way to go. Here are two reasons why Arteta’s men could well slip up, ensuring that their lengthy title drought continues into a 23rd year.
Misfiring Strikers
Across the last three and a half years, Arsenal have spent £174m on three new strikers. This season, those strikers have combined to score just eight goals.
The first to arrive was Gabriel Jesus, who signed as a four-time Premier League champion from Manchester City in the summer of 2022. The Brazilian initially looked to be the answer to Arsenal’s problems, but a slew of injuries and inability to provide a consistent source of goals have forced Mikel Arteta to look for alternatives. The first of those was Kai Havertz, but he, too, has suffered a similar fate, with consistent trips to the treatment room and a lack of goals leading to the Gunners repeatedly falling short of the finish line.
This summer, Arteta went back to the striking well, forking out £64m to sign the prolific Viktor Gyökeres from Sporting CP. The Swede had bagged 97 goals across 102 appearances in his two years in Lisbon, and it seemed as though the Emirates faithful finally had the goalscorer they so desperately craved. However, he too has struggled leading the line, netting just seven times this season before also suffering an injury, missing four games throughout November, and scoring just once since his return.
Such poor output from expensive strikers is not the recipe for Premier League success. Each of the last three championship-winning teams boasted an attacker who bagged more than 20 goals en route to the title. If Arsenal are to claim the crown, then it seems they will have to do so without a prolific hitman leading the way.
History of Collapses
In two of Arsenal’s three consecutive runner-up campaigns, the Gunners have squandered huge title race leads en route to second place. In 2022/23, Arteta’s side were eight points clear of Manchester City with just eight games remaining. They would proceed to draw three on the bounce before a 4-1 drubbing at the Etihad ended their hopes once and for all.
A year later, the Gunners stormed out of the blocks. Declan Rice’s last-gasp winner away at Luton Town moved his side five points clear at the season’s halfway point. Once more, they would capitulate. A run of one win in five throughout the festive period saw Liverpool and Manchester City return to contention, and while the Gunners rallied throughout the second half of the season, a 2-0 home defeat to Aston Villa took the title to the Etihad once more.
But the collapsing nature isn’t a recent thing. Back in the 2007/08 season, the Gunners were five points clear of the chasing pack as the campaign ticked into February. Then, a devastating 2-2 draw against ten-man Birmingham City – a game in which striker Eduardo suffered a brutal double leg break – triggered an almighty collapse. Arsenal would win just one of their next eight, falling dramatically out of contention.
Will history repeat itself this term? Gooners the world over will be praying that it doesn’t, but Arsenal bettors don’t necessarily need to take the risk.
